Noua pandemie super-profitabilă: cursa înarmărilor și clienții săi globali

Desigur, piața vânzărilor de armament a fost dintotdeauna dintre cele mai profitabile, dar niciodată nu s-a dezvoltat sub auspicii politice atât de favorabile ca acum: negustorii de moarte fac acum câștiguri uriașe, cu mult dincolo de cifrele de acum relativ modeste de pe vremea pandemiei Covid 19, acelea fiind și oarecum imorale și chiar amenințate acum de ceva cercetări penale în cazurile destul de rare ale celor mai puțin abili dintre ei și care n-au acționat prin intermediul contractelor guvernamentale sau organizațiilor internaționale.

Dar, de data asta, situația s-a schimbat radical: producătorii și exportatorii de arme, companii de stat sau private, simpli particulari implicați în comerțul respectiv, și-au văzut afacerile susținute legal de guvernele celor mai bogate țări ale planetei, aflate acum într-o frenezie a producerii unor cantități din ce în ce mai mari de sisteme de arme de toate categoriile, răspunzând presiunii comerciale venind din partea țărilor care, la impusul diverșilor vectori de influență, declară acum că prioritatea absolută este înarmarea și umplerea arsenalelor.

Iată cum arată raportul global – cu cifrele orientative și aproape imposibil de verificat în amănunt – între țările producătoare și cele importatoare de armament:

Dar asemenea grafice sunt destul de puțin convingătoare deoarece – poate chiar pe bună dreptate – prima întrebare este legată de veridicitatea surselor folosite. Așa că am apelat la datele oferite de Forumul asupra comerțului cu arme și am ales drept exemplificare un document foarte recent publicat de experții lor la secțiunea „Arme pentru Ucraina”. Firește, subiectul este prioritar la nivelul opiniei publice mondiale, dar cu atât mai mult important pentru țările europene și în special cele aflate, ca România, pe linia directă de contact cu tragedia din Ucraina.

Costurile livrărilor de arme de până acum către Ucraina sunt enorme și ele continuă se crească, zi de zi, odată cu anunțurile făcute de mai multe țări că răspund cererilor urgente formulate de președintele ucrainean. Până acum, acul puțin, exceptată fiind livrarea de avioane de luptă. După cum vedeți, surse citată evaluează relativ modest contribuția României, desigur în raport cu celelalte livrări deja confirmate și aprobate de parlamentele naționale.

Overview of pledged and/or delivered weapons (see timeline below for more details and links) * ​

• Australia:  M113 armored personnel carriers, Bushmaster protected mobility vehicles, missiles, and weapons - AUD $285 million ($200 million), six M77 155mm howitzers, four 14 M113AS4 Armored Personnel Carriers; drones and 34 armored vehicles (valued $68 million)
• Belgium:  200 anti-tank weapons and 5,000 automatic rifles/machine guns; heavy machine guns, ammunition, non-lethal equipment for the winter including helmets, spare provisions and night vision equipment.
• Canada: Four Leopard 2A4 tanks, NASAMS Air Defense Missile System ($406 million USD), 200 Senator armored personnel carriers ($90 million USD), 8 armored vehicles, M777 howitzers, 4500 M72 rocket launchers and up to 7500 hand grenades, 20,000 155mm artillery shells, as well as $1 million dollars for the purchase of commercial satellite high resolution and modern imagery​, machine guns, pistols, carbines, 1.5 million rounds of ammunition, sniper rifles, and various related equipment ($7.8 million), plus additional $20 million in military aid (CAD $25 million - details undisclosed)-- CAD $118 million total (as of April 22) -- and an additional CAD $500 million on May 8 (undefined), 39 armoured combat support vehicles (ACSVs), M777 Howitzer shells, Wescam MX-15D UAV sensors, and satellite communication devices (official page)
• Croatia:  rifles and machine guns, protective equipment valued at 124 million kuna (€16.5 million) 
• Czech Republic: 90 T-72 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles; attack helicopters (Mi-24); rocket systems; 400 million koruna ($18.23 million) of non-light weapons, including 160 shoulder-fired MANPADS systems (probably 9K32 Strela-2), 20 light machine guns, 132 assault rifles, 70 submachine guns, 108,000 bullets, 1,000 tactical gloves, all worth 17 million crowns ($756,000), and an earlier 188 million koruna ($8.6 million) worth of 4,000 mortars, 30,000 pistols, 7,000 assault rifles, 3,000 machine guns, a number of sniper rifles, and one million bullets. 
• Denmark: 20 refurbished Leopard 1A5 tanks, 19 155mm Caesar Howitzers, Harpoon anti-ship launcher and missiles, 2,700 anti-tank weapons, 300 Stinger missiles (returned to United States to be made operational), protective vests. Joint commitment with Germany and the Netherlands to send 100 Leopard 1A5 tanks.
• Estonia: 60 155mm FH-70 and 122mm D-30 howitzers, ammunition, grenade launchers, Javelin anti-tank missiles; nine howitzers (with German permission)
• European Union:  €2 billion for military supplies, €500 million in military aid
• ​Finland: $434 million in new Jan. 20 security assistance package (includes howitzers), 2,500 assault rifles and 150,000 cartridges for them, 1,500 single-shot anti-tank weapons, and combat ration packages
• France: AMX-10Rc light tanks, ​25 AMX-10P tracked armored Infantry Fighting Vehicles, 18 CAESAR truck-mounted howitzers, MILAN anti-tank guided missile systems plus “additional defense equipment,” 
• Germany: 14 Leopard 2A6 tanks, 100 Leopard 1A5 tanks, 40 Marder IFVs, Patriot missile defense system, 32 Gepard anti-aircraft tanks, 50 Cheetah anti-aircraft systems, 56 PbV-501 IFVs, 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger anti-aircraft defense system, plus permission for select other countries to send weapons controlled by Germany, three M270 Mittleres Artillerie Raketen System (MARS) launchers and GMLRS ammunition, 100 tank howitzers, 16 Biber bridge-layer tanks, IRIS-T air defense systems, heavy and medium bridge systems, 167,000 rounds of ammunition for fire arms, 12 armored recovery vehicles, 50 MRAP Dingos (official page)
• ​Greece:  40 BMP-1 armored vehicles, portable rocket launchers, ammunition, and Kalashnikov rifles, 155mm ammunition 
• Ireland: 200 units of body armor, medical supplies, fuel, and other non-lethal aid
• Italy: Cabinet approved transfer of military equipment, pending Parliamentary approval.- reported to include Stinger surface-to-air missiles, anti-tank weapons, heavy machine guns, MG-type light machine guns and counter-IED systems
• Japan: Bulletproof vests, helmets, and other non-lethal military aid; civilian vans and UAVs
• Latvia: Two Mi-7 helicopters, Stinger MANPADS, and UAVs, six 155mm self-propelled Howitzers, four helicopters, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles
• Lithuania: Two Mi-8 helicopters, Bofors L70 anti-aircraft guns, Stinger anti-aircraft missile systems and ammunition, M113 (62) and M577 armored personnel carriers and ammunition; 105-mm howitzers; 50 M113 armored vehicles; 12 repaired PzH2000 howitzers
• Luxembourg: 102 NLAW (Next Generation Light Anti-Tank Weapon), Jeep Wrangler 4x4 vehicles, military tents, and additional lethal and non-lethal equipment (See list as of December 2).
• Montenegro: 7000 MREs, 500 helmets, 300 body armor kits, 600 armor plates, 60mm and 82mm mortars, Soviet-era Strela-2M MANPADS, 216 Strela-2M MANPADS, 759 57mm anti-aircraft rounds, 8,000 76mm shells, 2.3 million 7.62mm rounds, and helicopter spare parts. 
• Netherlands: Two Patriot air defense batteries, 200 Stinger missiles, 3000 combat helmets and 2000 fragmentation vests with accompanying armor plates, one hundred sniper rifles with 30,000 pieces of ammunition, plus other equipment; 400 rocket-propelled grenade launchers (with German permission), heavy weapons, self-propelled howitzers, armored vehicles. Joint commitment with Germany and Denmark to send 100 Leopard 1A5 tanks.
• North Macedonia: unspecified military equipment, unspecified number of soviet-era tanks
• Norway: 8 Leopard 2A4 tanks, 100 Mistral air defense missiles, 4,000 anti-tank weapons, helmets, bulletproof vests, other protection equipment, 22 M109 155m tracked self-propelled howitzers and related materials, three MLRS long-range rocket artillery (joint donation with UK), Hellfire missiles
• Poland: 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks, 30 PT-91 Twardy tanks, 260 T-72 tanks, other approved delivery of Piorun (Thunderbolt) short-range, man-portable air defense (MANPAD) systems and munition; Defense Minister expressed readiness to supply several dozen thousand rounds of ammunition and artillery ammunition, air defense systems, light mortars, and reconnaissance drones, three Krab 155m self-propelled howitzer squadrons (worth $700M); Bayraktar drones, dozens of S-60 anti-aircraft guns.
• Portugal: 4 Leopard 2A6 tanks, 29 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers, 5 M114 155mm Howitzers, grenades and ammunition, G3 automatic rifles, and other non-lethal equipment like six Kamov firefighting helicopters
• ​Romania: €3 million of fuel, bulletproof vests, helmets, ammunition, military equipment, and medical treatment 
• Slovakia: S-300 air defense system, eight self-propelled Zuzana 24 howitzers. 
• Slovenia: T-72 tanks (reported), undisclosed amount of Kalashnikov rifles, helmets, and ammunition; 28 Slovenian M-55S tanks
• Spain: 6 Leopard 2A6 tanks, 20 M113 armored personnel carriers, 1,370 anti-tank grenade launchers, 700,000 rifle and machine-gun rounds, and light machine guns, 20 tons of medical supplies, defensive, and personal protective equipment composing of helmets, flak jackets, and NBC (nuclear-biological-chemical) protection waistcoats, four (to six) HAWK launchers
• Sweden: Leopard 2 tanks, 12 155mm Archer howitzers, 50 CV90 Infantry Fighting Vehicles, NLAW anti-tank weapons, mine clearing equipment, 10,000 AT4 anti-tank weapons, helmets, and body shields; anti-tank weapons and machine guns (valued $40 million); air defense systems (part of $287 million - Nov 16)
• Turkey: co-production of Bakar Bayraktar TB2 armed drones​
• United Kingdom: 14 Challenger 2 tanks, 30 AS90 self-propelled artillery weapons, 100 armored vehicles including Bulldog armored personnel carriers, anti-aircraft capabilities (Stormer), 10,000 short-range and anti-tank missiles (including NLAWs and Javelins), Saxon armored vehicles, Starstreak air defence systems, loitering munitions, radar, heavy lift drones -- with aid at £200 million, to rise to as high as £500m as of April 25 (note: on April 8, reports indicated aid already at £350 million)-- on May 2, an additional £300 million announced, M270 multiple-launch rocket systems (quantity to be announced), $1.2 billion (air defense systems and other technologies), three MLRS long-range rocket artillery (joint donation with Norway); 50,000 artillery shells, artillery guns, drones, anti-tank weapons, additional MLRS, precision guided M31A1 missiles, AMRAAM anti-aircraft missiles (see also Sept 21 report from UK House of Commons Library), 125 anti-aircraft guns and anti-drone equipment as part of £50 million package on Nov. 19
• United States: 31 M1A2 Abrams tanks, more than 230 Howitzers and more than 1,300,000 artillery rounds; laser-guided rocket systems; Switchblade, Puma, and Counter-Unmannered Aerial systems​; about 1,800 Phoenix Ghost Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems; counter-artillery radars; 38 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and HIMARS ammunition; eight Surface-to-air Missile Systems (NASAMS); One Patriot air defense battery and munitions; 4 Avenger air defense systems; HARM missiles; 1600 Stinger and 8500 Javelin missiles; 2500 TOW missiles; 20 Mi-17 helicopters;  hundreds of High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs); 5200 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds; 105000 155mm rounds of RAAM Systems; 45 Refurbished T-72B Tanks; 50 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles; ​anti-armor systems, small arms and various munitions; more than 108 million rounds of small arms ammunition; body armor; 58 coastal and riverine boats. January 19, $2.5 billion security assistance package for Ukraine: eight Avenger air defense systems, 59 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles, and 90 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers (see the full description of the U.S. package here). February 3 package: GLSDBs, 181 MRAP Vehicles, 250 Javelin anti-armor systems, artillery rounds, 190 heavy machine guns and more. Additionally, 1.75 billion in USAI funds to purchase HAWK air defense units, anti-aircraft guns, radar systems, rockets, Puma drones, mortar rounds, and other munitions (see full list here). February 24: $2 billion in USAI funds (see here). Total is more than $30.4 billion in security aid since the Biden Administration began in January 2021, as of February 24, 2023 (Factsheet, February 24, 2023).

Ce mi se pare necesar de adăugat este avertismentul implicat conținut în cele 576 de pagini ale ediției din acest an a unei lucrări de referință în domeniu The Military Balance 2023, redactată de experții de la The International Institute fon Strategic Studies și care analizează raportul din forțele din teren, ucrainene și rusești, dar și modernizarea militară a Chinei, fără precedent ca extensie și forță, acum un game changer pe plan mondial și, posibil, chiar în conflictul din Ucraina dacă va dori să se implice într-un fel sau altul.

Vorbim, deci, despre arme și doar despre arme.

Când și în ce termeni va veni și discuția despre pace și costurile ei? Poate este mai aproape decât cred mulți.